Three Forces Pulling the Coffee Market in Different Directions Right Now

By Samuel Demisse, Founder & CEO, Keffa Coffee April 24, 2026

If you've been watching the C market this spring, you already know it doesn't make much sense on paper. Brazil is about to harvest its largest coffee crop in history. Global stocks are starting to rebuild. Rabobank is pointing to a 7–10 million-bag surplus for 2026/27. By every fundamental the market has taught us to watch, prices should be drifting lower.

And yet, every time the market tries to break down, it bounces back. Arabica touched the high $2.70s, then shot back above $3.00 last week. On Thursday, July arabica closed up nearly 4% on the day, printing four-week highs. Robusta rallied alongside it.

After 20 years in this business, I've learned that when the market is doing something that doesn't make sense, it usually means you're only looking at part of the picture. Right now, there are three stories playing out at once — and roasters who understand all three will make better buying decisions than those who only follow the Bloomberg headline.

Let me walk you through what I'm seeing from our desk in Baltimore.

1. Brazil is about to flood the market — eventually

The Brazil 2026/27 number is the single most important data point in coffee right now. Conab's first official estimate came in at 66.2 million bags, a 17.1% jump over last year and a new all-time record for the country. Arabica alone is projected at 44.1 million bags, up 23.3%. Robusta at 22.1 million, also a record.

And the private forecasters are even more bullish than Conab. Hedgepoint just revised their number to 75.8 million bags. Marex came in at 75.9. Sucafina at 75.4. StoneX lifted its estimate to 75.3. Whichever number you believe, Brazil is entering a big "on-year" of the biennial cycle with favorable weather, expanded planted area in Minas Gerais, and better crop management than we've seen in years.

For roasters, this matters for two reasons:

• The structural picture for 2026 into 2027 is bearish. A surplus is coming.
• But physical supply isn't hitting the market yet. Brazil's February green coffee exports fell 27% year-over-year to 2.3 million bags. That's not a crop problem — that's farmers holding back beans. Some are waiting for higher prices. Some are timing sales for the 2026 tax year. Either way, the coffee is sitting on farms, not moving into containers.

Harvest for robusta begins in May, and for arabica it intensifies from June to September. Until those beans physically reach port, the surplus is a forecast, not a reality.

2. The Hormuz crisis put a floor under the whole market

This is the part most coffee people outside of logistics aren't paying enough attention to. On February 28, the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down following the US–Israel strikes on Iran. Commercial container traffic through the strait dropped about 95% overnight. Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM all suspended transits. The Red Sea route was already compromised by the Houthis, so carriers had to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope — adding 10 to 14 days per voyage on Asia–Europe and Asia–US East Coast lanes.

What that's done to freight is exactly what you'd expect:

• Transpacific container rates to the US West Coast are up around 40% since pre-war levels. Far East to US East Coast up 38%.
• Emergency bunker surcharges of up to $3,000 per FEU on Gulf-linked corridors.
• US retail diesel hit $5.40 per gallon by the end of March, pushing truckload and LTL rates to two-year highs.
• Maersk filed for emergency bunker surcharges of $200 per TEU headhaul, $100 backhaul.
• Vietnamese and Indonesian robusta shipments are seeing transit extensions of up to 21 days.

So while the fundamentals say "Brazilian record crop, prices down," the logistics say "it's more expensive and slower to move coffee than it's been in two years." Those two forces are fighting each other, and that's why you're seeing such whippy trading. Every time the surplus story wins, the market drops toward $2.80. Every time the Hormuz story wins, it spikes back to $3.00+.

For anyone hedging or forward-contracting, this is a volatility environment, not a trend environment.

3. The fuel crisis at origin — the story nobody's telling

Here's where it gets personal for Keffa. Ethiopia is in the worst fuel crisis I've seen in my lifetime, and it is going to affect the 2026 Ethiopian coffee season.

Ethiopia imports virtually 100% of its refined fuel, and roughly half of that comes through the Gulf — Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE. When Hormuz closed, 180,000 metric tons of fuel that Ethiopia had already contracted simply didn't arrive. Daily white diesel supply was cut in half, from 9.2 million liters to 4.5 million liters.

As of March 31, the government moved to a strict priority allocation system. Only seven categories of users get "first at the pump" access — fuel tankers, major exporters, essential goods transport, agricultural machinery, public buses, ambulances, and critical projects. Everyone else is on a severe ration. Diesel prices in Addis jumped from 129 birr per liter in February to 163 birr by April 1 — a 26% increase in five weeks. The black market price is four to five times that.

Here's what that means for coffee moving out of Ethiopia:

• Transport from the washing stations to Addis and down to Djibouti is harder and more expensive. Trucks are waiting in fuel queues for hours. Some are running on rationed diesel. Some are paying black-market premiums.
• Exporters are technically prioritized, which helps, but the bottleneck is real. My partners on the ground tell me moves that used to take 3–4 days are now taking a week or more.
• Input costs are rising at origin — fertilizer, processing equipment, generator fuel at mills. All of it compounds into the FOB price before the coffee even touches a container.
• The Tigray region has been hit even harder — fuel supply was reported down 85% last year, and the current crisis has made it worse.

And Ethiopia isn't alone. Fuel shortages and rationing have been confirmed in Kenya (13 counties), Vietnam, the Philippines, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and others. Every one of those is either a coffee producer or a country that moves a lot of coffee through its ports.

What this means for roasters buying this year

Putting the three forces together, here's how I'd frame it for our customers:

• The structural direction is down. A record Brazilian crop and rebuilding global stocks argue for lower C market prices in the back half of 2026 and into 2027. Rabobank's late-2026 forecast of $2.50–$3.00 is a reasonable bracket.
• The short-term floor is higher than fundamentals suggest. Farmer holdouts in Brazil, fuel crisis at origin, and doubled freight costs are all pushing up against gravity. Don't expect a sharp, clean decline — expect volatility and sideways trading until Brazil's new crop physically arrives.
• Origin premiums aren't going away just because the C drops. The cost base at origin has fundamentally shifted over the last 18 months. Labor, fuel, fertilizer, packaging, inland transport — all up. Even if the C market eases, differentials on specialty Ethiopian, Guatemalan, and Honduran lots will stay firm.
• Cash flow matters more than price timing. When green prices are high and volatile, everyone in the chain needs more working capital. Lock in what you need, book forward where it makes sense, and don't try to perfectly time a market that has three major forces pulling it in different directions.

At Keffa, we've been through a lot of cycles since 2006 — the 2008 recession, the 2011 peak, the 2019 lows, the 2025 historic highs. The one thing that's always worked is staying close to our growers, being honest with our roaster partners about what we're seeing, and keeping the supply chain moving even when it's hard.

We're still shipping. Our Ethiopian partners are still moving coffee, even with fuel rationing. Our warehouses in Baltimore, New Jersey, Houston, LA, Oakland, Seattle, and Vancouver are stocked with fresh arrivals. And we're here to help you plan the next six to twelve months, no matter what the C market decides to do next.