Where prices sit right now
Arabica futures are trading around $3.20/lb as of early February — the lowest since August 2025 and roughly 29% below the $4.41 peak we saw a year ago. That’s a real correction, but context matters: $3.20 is still well above historical norms. If you’ve been buying green coffee for more than a few years, you know this isn’t “cheap.” It’s less expensive than the spike.
The pullback mostly reflects better supply signals out of Brazil. More on that below.
The Brazil situation: tariffs, recovery, and what followed
Brazil produces about 37% of the world’s coffee, so when the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports last year, the ripple effect was immediate. Brazilian coffee exports to the U.S. dropped 46% in August alone. Prices across all origins — including our Ethiopian lots — got pulled higher in sympathy.
We felt it. When tariffs and freight jumped, we held pricing where we could instead of auto-passing every increase. We’d pre-positioned inventory ahead of the worst of it, which gave us and our partners some breathing room. The tariffs came off in November, but the supply chain is still recalibrating. Buyers and importers are still rebuilding the sourcing patterns that got disrupted.
The brighter news: Conab is projecting Brazil’s 2026 crop at 66.2 million bags — up 17% year-over-year, with arabica specifically up 23% to 44.1 million bags. If that holds, it should ease some pressure on global pricing in the second half of the year.
The bigger picture: production still trails consumption
The single most important number in coffee right now isn’t the C-market price — it’s the gap between supply and demand. Global consumption is running around 177 million bags. Production for 2024/25 is forecast at roughly 174.4 million bags. That deficit has been shrinking inventories all year. At various points in 2025, ICE-certified stocks were down 60%.
What this means practically: there’s less buffer. A bad frost in Brazil, a logistics disruption, political instability at origin — any of these hit harder when stocks are thin. The market stays reactive.
On the demand side, the numbers keep climbing. Two-thirds of U.S. adults now drink coffee daily — highest in 20 years — and emerging markets in Asia, particularly China and India, are adding real volume. Coffee consumption doesn’t respond much to price increases. People keep drinking it.
What we’re telling our partners
None of this is a reason to panic, but it’s not a reason to wait, either. If you’ve been watching the pullback and thinking about locking in lots for spring and summer, the window is open. Brazil’s production recovery could push prices lower later in the year, or another supply shock could send them right back up. We’ve seen both happen.
We’re currently stocking new-crop Ethiopian lots that landed in January, and pricing reflects the correction. If you want to evaluate what we have, request samples or reach out directly — we’ll send specs and current pricing the same day.