For the first time in modern history, both of the Middle East's major maritime corridors are simultaneously blocked. All the major carriers pulled out. Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd — every one of them suspended transit through the strait. Over 150 tankers dropped anchor rather than risk the passage. War-risk insurance premiums surged from around 0.25 percent to over 0.5 percent of hull value. For a $150 million container vessel,
What This Means for Your Green Coffee
For Ethiopian coffee, here's the direct impact. All our coffee ships out of the Port of Djibouti. The normal route for East Coast delivery runs through the Gulf of Aden, up through the Red Sea, through the Suez Canal, across the Mediterranean, and into the Atlantic. That route is effectively shut down. Instead, containers are going around the entire African continent via the Cape of Good Hope. That adds roughly 3,500 nautical miles and 10 to 14 extra days of sailing time.
greater vessel wear
Transit times from Djibouti (current conditions):
- U.S. East Coast (Baltimore, New York, Savannah): Normally 25–35 days. Right now, expect 45–60 days.
- U.S. West Coast (Oakland, Seattle): Normally 30–40 days. Right now, expect 50–65 days.
- The route: Djibouti → Gulf of Aden → south around the Cape of Good Hope → up the West African coast → across the Atlantic → U.S. ports. For West Coast deliveries, add the Panama Canal transit or continued routing south around Cape Horn.
For specialty green coffee, we estimate that the combined impact of extended transit times, higher fuel costs, elevated insurance premiums, and carrier surcharges is adding $0.03 to $0.08 per pound compared to what it would have cost six months ago.
The C-Market: Down from the Peak, but Don't Get Comfortable
Let's talk pricing. If you've been watching the market, you've probably noticed some relief. Arabica futures on the ICE exchange have pulled back to around $3.00 to $3.10 per pound, down significantly from the all-time high of $4.41 per pound we saw in February 2025.
That correction — about 30 percent off the peak — has been driven primarily by supply expectations. Brazil's national supply agency, Conab, is projecting a record harvest of 66.2 million bags for the 2026/27 crop year. That's a 17 percent jump over 2025. Arabica production alone is expected to hit 44.1 million bags, up over 23 percent year-on-year. The weather has cooperated — good rains during the critical bean-filling period — and the biennial production cycle is in a favorable "on year."
Rabobank is forecasting the first meaningful global coffee surplus in five years, estimated at 7 to 10 million bags for 2026/27, with total global output potentially reaching an unprecedented 180 million bags.
First, global consumption continues to outpace supply at roughly 177 million bags per year. Three consecutive years of production deficits from 2021 through 2024 resulted in a cumulative shortfall of approximately 15 million bags. That hole doesn't get filled overnight, even with a bumper Brazilian crop.
Coffee Trends: Cold Brew Isn't a Trend Anymore — It's the New Normal
Now let's shift gears and talk about what's actually happening on the demand side. Because if you're a roaster building your 2026 coffee program, this matters just as much as what's happening at origin.
According to the National Coffee Association's latest data, 66 percent of American adults now drink coffee daily — the highest rate in 20 years. But the more interesting number is this: specialty coffee consumption has surpassed traditional coffee consumption for the first time. 48 percent of adults consumed specialty coffee in the past day, up from 37 percent in 2021.
Cold brew is a huge part of that story. The global cold brew market hit roughly $3.9 billion in 2025, growing at over 20 percent year-on-year — nearly four times the growth rate of the overall coffee market. North America accounts for over 70 percent of that. Ready-to-drink formats — cans, bottles, concentrates — are where the real explosion is happening. Starbucks reported that cold drinks now represent 75 percent of U.S. sales. Not a typo. Seventy-five percent.
Younger consumers are driving this. Research from the NCA shows that 46 percent of adults aged 18 to 24 had a specialty coffee drink in the past day. People under 35 are significantly more likely to reach for cold brew or an RTD coffee than a hot drip cup.
Demand profile for green coffee is shifting. Cold brew extracts differently from hot coffee. It pulls less acidity, more sweetness, and more body. Coffees that perform well as cold brew — smooth, chocolatey, naturally sweet profiles — are becoming more important in your blend strategy. Natural processed coffees, in particular, tend to shine in cold brew applications because of their fruit-forward sweetness and fuller body.
What Keffa Is Doing About All of This
We planned ahead. We keep enough inventory in our warehouses to serve our customers, and plenty of our Ethiopian shipments made it through before the conflict started. So if you need coffee right now, we have it, ready to go.
Beyond Ethiopia, we've got fresh shipments of Sumatra, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Peru on the way. Diversifying origins has always been part of our strategy, and in a moment like this, it pays off.
Our warehouses in seven cities across North America — Baltimore, Oakland, New Jersey, Houston, Seattle, Vancouver, and Toronto — mean that whatever's in stock is accessible to you without cross-country trucking delays.