Where the Coffee Market Stands: Prices and Production
By Sam Demisse, Founder & CEO, Keffa Coffee — September 2026
The past two years have been the wildest I have seen in twenty years of importing coffee. So here is a plain-language look at prices, production, inventories, and the certified warehouse system, and what it all means for the coffee in your roaster this fall.
Prices: off the highs, but not cheap
The New York arabica "C" contract is trading around $2.90 per pound this week. That is roughly 26% lower than a year ago and about a third below the all-time high above $4.30 that we saw in February 2025. Robusta in London is around $3,460 per metric ton, also well off its 2025 peak.
The ICO composite indicator, which blends all the major grades, averaged 287 cents per pound in August. Underneath that average the spread between origins is wide: Colombian Milds averaged 387 cents, Other Milds (Central America, Peru, Ethiopia washed) 361 cents, Brazilian Naturals 322 cents, and Robustas 181 cents. That gap between arabica and robusta is one of the widest on record, which is why so many blenders have been quietly moving toward robusta.
So the headline is "prices are down." The reality for specialty roasters is more nuanced. The market has pulled back from panic levels, but $2.90 is still nearly double where the C sat for most of the last decade, and the coffees we buy trade at a premium on top of that.
Production: a record crop is coming, on paper
The big reason prices eased is Brazil. The USDA's July outlook forecasts world production for 2026/27 at a record 189.7 million bags, up about 6% from last year. Brazil alone is expected to produce 71.9 million bags, up 14%, on the strength of its "on" year for arabica. Vietnam is pegged at 32.5 million bags, Colombia 13.4 million, and Ethiopia a record 12.1 million.
Closer to home for our customers, the USDA sees Honduras at about 6.0 million bags, Peru at 4.8 million, Guatemala at 3.3 million, and El Salvador at roughly 540,000 bags. Central America and Mexico together are expected to grow modestly.
Two caveats worth remembering. First, the Brazilian government's own agency, Conab, is more conservative at 66.7 million bags, while private traders have estimates closer to 73 to 76 million. Nobody agrees on the number yet. Second, this year's Brazilian harvest ran late because of out-of-season rain, and quality has been disappointing. Several traders have reported new-crop Brazilian lots failing to pass grading at the exchange, which brings us to the part of the market I think matters most right now.
Inventories: the tightest exchange stocks since 1999
The ICE certified arabica stockpile, the coffee physically sitting in exchange-approved warehouses and available for delivery against futures, fell to about 224,000 bags in early September. That is the lowest level in 27 years, and roughly a quarter of what was in the warehouses just two years ago. A year ago the number was over 700,000 bags.
Why does this matter to a roaster who never touches a futures contract? Because certified stocks are the market's shock absorber. When the exchange is well-stocked, a trader who is short futures can simply deliver coffee. When the exchange is nearly empty, that trader has to buy back the contract at whatever price the market demands. That is why we saw the September contract expire at a huge premium to December in August, and why nearby prices keep jumping even while the long-term outlook looks comfortable. Tight certified stocks also pull physical prices along with them: exchange-quality coffee from Honduras or Peru has been quoted at 30 cents per pound or more above what a replacement Brazilian lot would cost, simply because it can be certified and the Brazilian coffee cannot.
There is a little relief on the way. On September 9 the exchange reported more than 38,000 bags waiting to be graded, the largest addition in months, and robusta certified stocks in London have climbed to a nine-month high. Broader US green stocks are harder to see since the Green Coffee Association stopped publishing its monthly report in 2023, but European port stocks are running near two-year lows. Globally, the USDA expects ending stocks to rise to 26.3 million bags in 2026/27 from 24.4 million, which is an improvement but still below the long-term average. In short, the world is slowly rebuilding its cushion, and it is starting from a very thin base.
What a "certified warehouse" actually is
Because I get this question a lot, here is the short version. ICE, the exchange that runs the arabica "C" contract, licenses warehouses in a handful of ports: the New York district and Virginia at par, plus New Orleans, Houston, and Miami in the US, and Antwerp and Bremen/Hamburg in Europe. Only washed arabica from approved origins can be delivered, and each origin carries a premium or discount to the contract price. Colombia, Costa Rica, and Kenya trade at a premium, Guatemala at a smaller premium, and Honduras, Peru, El Salvador, Mexico, Uganda, and a few others at par. Brazil is deliverable only at a discount, which is one reason so little Brazilian coffee ends up certified when differentials are strong.
To get coffee certified, samples are pulled from at least 10% of the bags, and three licensed graders independently cup and screen the lot. The coffee must be free of defects and off-flavors, hit screen-size minimums, and stay under a defect count. Once certified, coffee begins losing value after 120 days as age penalties kick in, and since late 2023 the exchange no longer allows old coffee to be re-graded and recertified. That rule change is part of why the stockpile has not been refilled the way it was in past cycles. The contract itself is also changing: ICE has launched a new metric-tone "C" contract, and the pound-based contract we have all quoted for decades will trade its final delivery in March 2028.
None of this coffee is specialty in the sense that we think of it. Certified coffee is sound, clean, commercial-grade washed arabica. But its price sets the floor for everything above it, including the coffees we import.
The risks I am watching
The strong El Niño that developed this summer is the biggest one. NOAA now puts the odds of a historic event by year-end above 60%. In Brazil, El Niño tends to bring heat and irregular rain during the September and October flowering that sets the size of the 2027 crop, and in Vietnam it threatens the Central Highlands during the dry season. If flowering goes badly, the "record crop" narrative could unravel before the coffee is even on the trees.
Two policy items are worth a mention. In the United States, the new 25% Section 301 tariff on Brazilian goods that took effect in July exempts green and soluble coffee, so there is currently no US tariff drag on Brazilian coffee. In Europe, the deforestation regulation (EUDR) is scheduled to apply to large and medium companies on December 30, 2026, and that has already started to affect how coffee is graded and discounted in the European exchange warehouses.
And at origin, Ethiopia just posted a record year with roughly $3 billion in coffee export earnings. Farmers there have been holding cherry and prices for washed lots have moved higher, so availability of top washed Ethiopians is tighter than the headline production number suggests. We are watching the new crop closely and will share what we see from our team in Addis as the harvest begins.
What this means for your roastery
The market is calmer than it was, but it is not comfortable. Prices are lower than a year ago, but exchange inventories are the thinnest in a generation and the weather risk for 2027 is real. That combination tends to produce sudden spikes in nearby prices even when the long-term picture looks fine.
My advice is the same as it has been all year: do not try to time the bottom. Cover your core coffees for the next two to three quarters, keep some flexibility for the coffees you love, and lean on a partner who holds coffee in the country, ready to ship. We keep spot inventory in Baltimore, Oakland, New Jersey, Houston, Seattle, Vancouver, and Toronto, with Hamburg coming soon, so you can buy what you need when you need it without carrying the risk yourself.